Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
