Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.